The deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) to GtCO2 scale by the mid-century is integral to realising net zero. Policy development for sustainable transitions tends to use consolidative modelling approaches. These, often protracted, analyses can become quickly outdated in dynamic fast-moving sectors, and are unable to manage the multiple objectives that actors seek when innovating. The innovation rate required to scale the CDR sector and the extent of uncertainty to realise net zero, questions the applicability of these approaches.

This research proposes a novel rapid policy analysis process, based on the decision theatre format, that uses strategic foresight to develop anticipatory, values-based CDR policy insights. This contribution prototypes this rapid approach on two pioneer national CDR developers – the United Kingdom and United States. Through its application, the method identifies opportunities for globally collaborative CDR policy intervention – a roadmap, a coordination hub, and agile policy processes – supported by regional policy specialisations – coordinating offices, measurement standards, and public capacity building – to achieve GtCO2 scale CDR deployment. Most importantly, the proposed approach provides a rapid method for sustainable transitions policy analysis in contexts of deep uncertainty.